‘Another wave of COVID-19 possible’ but not certain, says Hirji

There may be some early indications COVID-19 infections are poised to increase in Niagara, although it’s still too early to predict if another wave of infections will hit in the days and weeks to come, said the region’s acting medical officer of health.

Dr. Mustafa Hirji said data released by Public Health Ontario on Tuesday is showing cases identified as the Omicron subvariant BA.5 are “very much on the rise” across the province.

“This correlates with provincial wastewater data showing an overall provincial increase, though gradual, in COVID-19 activity, as well — an increase caused by BA.5,” he said in an email.

“We have not yet seen a clearly increasing trend in Niagara’s wastewater, though there have been small increases lately, which could be the first signs of an increase.”

Public Health Ontario data also showed BA.5 made up 11.1 per cent of Niagara’s COVID-19 cases for the week of June 5 to June 11.

Adding to Hirji’s concerns, he said BA.5 appears to spread more easily and quickly than the original Omicron variant, and can bypass immunity at a time when protection offered by vaccines may be waning.

“Past infection with COVID-19, even only in recent months, provides only a modest protection from infection, so reinfections are likely,” Hirji said.

“With most people being several months from their third dose of vaccine, immunity from vaccination is also no longer optimal. And many people still have not received a third dose.

He said the “conditions make another wave of COVID-19 possible,” although he “can’t yet be sure” if it will happen.

“The heat and humidity of the summer, people being outdoors more, and school ending this week will all slow BA.5 down and may undo much of the advantage it has. Only time will clarify if we are having another wave or not,” he said.

Research is still being conducted to determine how severe the BA.5 subvariant is compared to other strains of COVID-19, although preliminary evidence has shown it may be on par with other forms of Omicron.

“However, if it spreads more quickly, it will infect more people and we will have more who are severely ill, hospitalized or passing away,” he said.

Hirji said the threat of another wave driven by the BA.5 subvariant should be a wake-up call to implement changes necessary to control the spread of the infection.

“Cycles of new variants and subvariants bringing new waves of COVID-19 every few months will remain our reality, until we implement long-term, sustainable measures to control COVID-19 definitively,” he said.

A few examples of measures that should be implemented include improving ventilation and air filtration systems in public spaces, “building a culture of staying home if sick, updating our holiday calendar to allow washout of infections after a family gathering period.”

“BA.5 should be a reminder for us to undertake that work,” Hirji said.

Public health on Friday reported 363 known active infections in the region, with six outbreaks.

The Niagara Health hospital system had 11 patients being treated for COVID-19, including four in intensive care.

This week, 48 hospital staff were also off work in self-isolation due to potential exposure to the virus.

‘‘ Past infection with COVID-19, even only in recent months, provides only a modest protection from infection, so reinfections are likely.

DR. MUSTAFA HIRJI ACTING MEDICAL OFFICER OF HEALTH