Fourth wave in Niagara under control, for now

Although Niagara has so far managed to keep the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic under control, the region’s top public health doctor is warning that’s likely to change in the weeks to come.

Acting medical officer of health Dr. Mustafa Hirji said the region has managed to hold new cases of the virus to a weekly average of less than 25 cases per day, and the number has recently decreased slightly.

The decreases continued Wednesday when 18 new cases were reported by Niagara Region Public Health, with 258 cases active. That’s down from 33 new cases a day earlier and the fewest since Sept. 7 when a dozen cases were reported.

Hospitalizations, too, have been limited to a total of 43 patients since Aug. 7, with 10 patients being treated for the virus on Wednesday, including three in intensive care.

“I think for the moment we have the fourth wave under control, but I don’t think that means it’s going to be under control permanently,” Hirji said. “There are a lot of new risks that are on the horizon.”

He said cooler weather will force people to spend more time indoors, increasing opportunity for infection to spread.

And although Niagara’s schools have managed to contain the spread of the virus, “it only takes one bad outcome and you could have it spread to families, and we could see secondary spread from that.”

Also ahead is Thanksgiving, and that may also lead to increased cases of the virus.

“I think it’s reassuring that everything we’re doing is working, but we really need to keep that up because we’ve seen in Alberta what happens when you drop your guard,” he said.

Alberta has 20,917 active cases of the virus. It’s twice the number of active cases reported in Ontario, despite having less than a third of Ontario’s population.

Hamilton Public Health released modelling data Monday showing that city could see as many as 120 new cases per day by mid-october. The city where vaccine uptake is among the lowest in the province is seeing a daily average of about 38 new cases.

Hirji said Niagara does not have local modelling, relying instead on provincial data to forecast the spread of the virus here.

“What happens in the province, happens in Niagara. When the province goes through a wave, we go through a wave,” he said.

The provincial modelling shows “a pretty bad-looking fourth wave that will be happening, where we will be really high.”

However, he said, most Ontario jurisdictions “have been able to at least temporarily flatten this out.”

“I think that’s just delaying when that increase comes as opposed to preventing it entirely.”

Hirji said by delaying the full impact of the fourth wave, local health-care workers have time to vaccinate more people, while also “getting closer to when we might have a vaccine for the (aged) five to 11 population, and that could make a really big difference.”

In addition to the ongoing vaccine clinic at St. Catharines hospital as well as participating pharmacies and medical offices, Niagara Region Public Health public health is running clinics at Macbain Community Centre in Niagara Falls until the end of September, and walk-in clinics are planned for Niagara Falls Public Library Thursday and at the Outlet Collection at Niagara mall in Niagara-on-the-lake on Saturday from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m.

A clinic is also scheduled for the at Fort Erie Leisureplex on Sunday and Monday, and at the Niagara-on-the-lake Community Centre on Sept. 29.